Fergus MacGregor: Why agronomists resist yield predictions
Fergus MacGregor © Fergus MacGregor My agronomist and I went for a walk around the winter barley, discussing how the year has gone so far and his predictions for harvest.
“I think this field might do 8t/ha,” he said.
“I’ll hold you to that,” I replied, which prompted a lengthy explanation of all the possible problems we might face before the crop is in the barn.
He finished by joking how I’d leave half of it in the field if I was allowed anywhere near the combine.
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He had given an exciting prediction and I had definitely started to count my chickens before they’d hatched, and began wondering if we had enough shed space.
That was until, in the next field which is much lighter land, he said we’d be lucky to get 6t/ha. I obviously dismissed this as complete nonsense. The poor guy couldn’t win.
Looking rather sheepish, he admitted he didn’t like to give yield predictions as it had resulted in some rather unpleasant phone calls in August.
I could understand his predicament. After all, it’s not his fault if the rain decided not to fall at the appropriate time or the combine driver isn’t at the top of their game.
He’s probably an easy person to blame at harvest – clearly, it was all his fault for not having pulled the right trick out the of the magic chemical box at the right moment.
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Truth is, though, I know he’s done a cracking job. Despite the weather and soil types, the crops look good as we approach harvest.
So I’ll be happy if both fields average out at 7t/ha – and reasonably happy to have spent the small fortune on chemicals it took to get there.
Next time we field-walk, I’ll be sympathetic to his predicament, regardless of whether the crop does 6t/ha or 8t/ha.
I don’t envy him – for, as much as he has to manage the crops, he also has to manage his clients’ hopes and expectations for 10t/ha of barley with no chemical and a sprinkling of fertiliser. One day, maybe!