Welsh government must avoid ‘cherry-picking’ TB data, says FUW
© Tim Scrivener Farm leaders have called on the Welsh government to provide greater clarity on Welsh bovine TB data rather than “cherry-picking” numbers to give a positive spin.
Rural affairs minister Lesley Griffiths delivered her annual oral statement on the bovine TB eradication programme to the Senedd on 14 November.
In it, Mrs Griffiths emphasised that “long-term trends do show fewer affected herds and new herd incidents across Wales as a whole”.
See also: Welsh plans for increased TB testing provoke backlash
“New herd incidents have decreased by over 18% in the 12 months to June this year, when compared to the same period five years ago, and the number of animals slaughtered for TB control has also decreased by almost 5%,” she said.
The minister continued: “We are seeing positive trends in the high TB area west, where the number of new incidents has decreased by over 25% when compared to the same period over five years ago.”
But the Farmers’ Union of Wales (FUW) recently met with the minister to discuss such “overly positive” comments, stating that reporting the data in this way distorts the reality of bovine TB on many Welsh cattle farms.
Regional breakdown
The FUW has analysed official Defra data and compiled a regionalised breakdown of the number of cattle slaughtered in the 12 months to June 2023 when compared to 2017 data.
It found that the number of TB cattle slaughterings in the timeframe provided by the minster actually increased in three of the five regions in Wales.
The highest increase (554%) was seen in the low TB area. But increases were also recorded in the Wales Intermediate Mid and the Wales Intermediate North, of 16.8% and 141%, respectively.
The remaining two regions (Wales High East and Wales High West) both saw decreases in the number of cattle slaughtered.
“The pan-Wales figure of a reduction in the number of cattle slaughtered of 5% therefore does not reflect the wide variation in regionalised figures for this bovine TB metric,” said Dr Hazel Wright, FUW acting head of policy.
The union is also questioning the rationale behind the Welsh government’s decision to reintroduce pre-movement testing for cattle movements within and from the low TB area and to extend the requirement for post-movement testing in the intermediate TB areas from 1 February 2024.
Between 2017 and 2022, there were 576 reactors, 610 inconclusive reactors (IRs) and 49 direct contacts recorded out of a total number of 864,034 pre-movement tests.
Over the same period, 52,962 post-movement tests detected just 10 reactors and 22 IRs.
Dr Wright said: “If you’re a cattle farmer in Anglesey and you know the situation is getting worse in your area because you have had a TB herd breakdown and you know several other farms that have had new breakdowns, seeing these pan-Wales statistics can be really infuriating.
“We believe the statement should have openly recognised this variation by acknowledging the 554% rise in Anglesey.
“To state that 5% less cattle are being slaughtered overall just doesn’t reflect what’s happening on the ground.”
Government response
A Welsh government spokesperson said: “Overall, across Wales we are seeing progress in tackling bovine TB, with new herd incidents decreasing over the long-term.
“It is also fully recognised that the TB situation varies across different parts of Wales, as well as the impact of bovine TB on the health and wellbeing of our farmers and their families.
“We are taking a more targeted approach in certain areas, such as Anglesey, to deal with increases in disease. This, in turn, can result in more new herd incidents in the area as infection is identified.
“Another example is the industry-led Pembrokeshire Project, where vets and farmers are working together to explore new and collaborative approaches to tackle TB at a local level.
“Farmers working closely with their vet is crucial to both protect herds and keep TB out, as well as tackling the disease if it does occur.
“Government cannot eradicate TB alone – partnership working with our farmers and vets is crucial to reach our shared goal of a TB-free Wales.”
Latest TB data shows mixed picture for England and Wales
The latest official government data on bovine TB reveals a mixed picture of the disease across England and Wales.
In Wales, the number of new TB herd incidents on the 12 months to the end of September increased by 6% year on year, as decreases in two TB areas were offset by increases in the other three areas.
However, England overall recorded its fewest new herd incidents over 12 months since 2004, while the High Risk Area recorded its fewest since 2002.
In Wales, overall there was an increase of 2% in the number of TB-infected cattle slaughtered between October 2022 and September 2023 (9,669), compared to the previous 12 months (9,505).
In contrast, England recorded a 19% drop in TB cattle slaughterings over this period (22,928 to 19,506).
In Wales, overall herd prevalence rose from 5% to 5.4%. An ongoing TB situation in Anglesey “resulted in the incidence level in the Low TB area reaching an all-time high”.
Meanwhile, TB herd prevalence in England is down from 4.6% to 4.1%.