Cereals 99 marks start-up of nitrogen market

FERTILISER use at present is restricted to the grassland areas where sales have settled and prices have changed little – if at all.

Meanwhile all eyes are turned to the arable east where the Cereals event has often signalled the start of the pre-harvest nitrogen market.

This year, both merchants and manufacturers have been rather coy about quoting at the event and, surprisingly, farmers seem much less interested in pursuing prices than usual.

The “big three” have now all declared their prices for the nitrogen season as Terra announced its prices this week.

Nitram on-farm delivered will be about £92 pay November or £92.50 pay December. Cash deals for large tonnages have been reported at £88.

The problem for the trade now is to translate those prices into deliveries. Britain is awash with nitrogen fertiliser and the industry needs to stimulate movement but at the same time avoid prices falling to an even less sustainable level.

It is reasonable to speculate therefore that there could be some incentive for fixed quantities of product to move on farm just below £90 to stimulate the pre-harvest market. We should expect the price to return to £90-92 thereafter.

There still remains a significant gap between the hopes and expectations of merchants supplying large group orders and the willingness of the manufacturer to support ultra-low pricing.

Expectations of £82/t for domestic material are unrealistic at present and the high £80s would seem nearer the mark.

Meanwhile, at Cereals 99, Terra launched “Spring-K”, a size-matched 22.0.22 blend for top-dressing which addresses the deficit of potash in many arable crops.

But it also provides Terra with an opportunity to utilise a few more tonnes of AN prills.

Kemira and Hydro concentrated on their increasingly sophisticated advisory packages which must be coming ever more difficult to sustain at present fertiliser price levels.

CURRENT MARKETS

NITROGEN