Dampeners on crop prospects
Dampeners on crop prospects
By FWreporters
INDUSTRY observers are predicting the winter crop area could be 50% lower than its planned level because a significant proportion of crops already in the ground look destined to fail.
Advisers have claimed that unprecedented waterlogging across much of the country means few crops drilled into frost in early January are now likely to emerge. Many crops mauled into sodden seedbeds in late November and December could also rot in the field.
Earlier this week one commentator suggested that up to 20% of winter sowings could now fail, leaving the total winter crop area at half the level planned. More conservative estimates suggest a 5-10% crop loss, taking total plantings to 60-65% of those planned.
John Garstang, ADAS crops co-ordinator, reckoned 10% of all cereal sowings to date were of "questionable value".
"We have been monitoring the picture for three months and it is mainly November and December drillings that have rotted," he said.
North Yorks-based Andrew Fisher of the Association of Independent Crop Consultants said there were very few fields without wet holes. "I estimate that 5-10% of crops up here wont make it and will have to be re-sown," he added.
But while MAFF has relaxed the rules to allow farmers to put more ground into set-aside, advisors are telling growers they must focus on spring crops to protect incomes.
"Obviously soil conditions are critical and we do need it to dry out between now and March, but simply putting more land into set-aside will have a very serious impact on profitability," said David Ellerton, crop protection company ProCams technical director.
Speaking at a farmer meeting organised by sister company J D Rutherford at the South of England Showground Ardingly, West Sussex, a typical 240ha (600-acre) farm would suffer a 27% drop in gross margin, equivalent to over £30,000, by opting for 50% set-aside stressed Mr Ellertons colleague Nick Myers.
Growing a range of spring crops would add £25,000, returning profitability to within 5% of normal cropping, he claimed.
But the prospect of a huge increase in spring barley in England has sparked fears north of the border that there will be a glut of malting barley, leading to a significant reduction in price.
Malting barley buyers have insisted they can sell any extra grain that is produced, either at home or for export but at this stage refused to be drawn on price.
Meanwhile, Paul Ibbot, NFU chief arable adviser has urged producers to take notice of a letter from MAFF explaining exactly what the set-aside rules will be this year. He stressed: "Farmers need to look at and read the letter."