Analysis: Farming at heart of Welsh election battle
© MAG/Anne Dunn With less than a month until voters go to the polls in Wales, agriculture has become a key election issue, with political parties setting out competing visions for the sector.
Under the new structure, 96 Senedd members will be elected on 7 May.
Farming unions and industry leaders are calling for stability amid global uncertainty, prioritising fair funding, an effective bovine TB eradication strategy, and a science-led approach to water quality.
See also: Senedd candidates set out rural plans at CLA conference
The outcome of the Senedd election is expected to play a decisive role in shaping how Welsh agriculture balances these competing demands in the years ahead.
Sustainable Farming Scheme
The Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), introduced in January, remains one of the most contested policies in Welsh agriculture.
Former deputy first minister Huw Irranca-Davies, who oversaw its final stages, said there was room to improve the scheme.
“We’ve designed the scheme to be dynamic so it can evolve based on feedback from stakeholders,” he said, adding that future changes would focus on optional and collaborative elements shaped with industry input.
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the transition away from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy would require flexibility. “We are willing to test and learn when we see things are not working as well as they could,” he said.
The Senedd building © MAG/Anne Dunn
While acknowledging calls for increased funding, he pointed to financial constraints but pledged multi-year budgets to support farm business planning.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats also committed to multi-year funding. Leader Jane Dodds said the party would back “an orderly and just adoption” of the scheme and retain the Ffermio Bro “green” initiative.
In contrast, the Welsh Conservatives have indicated they would ultimately replace the SFS with a system placing greater emphasis on food production.
Rural affairs spokesman Sam Kurtz said the party would first review the scheme. “We wouldn’t stop the SFS on day one but rather undertake an analysis to see where we can improve food productivity and food security,” he said.
Reform UK also called for changes, arguing the scheme places too much emphasis on environmental measures.
James Evans said his party would aim to better reward food production while maintaining actions that support resilience.
“We do live in a very volatile world at the moment. We don’t want to become more heavily reliant on importing food,” he said.
The Wales Green Party said it would strengthen and simplify the SFS to ensure farming and nature recovery work together.
Leader Anthony Slaughter said: “Building climate resilience into our agricultural systems will protect farmers and communities from the impacts of flooding and drought.”
Bovine TB policy
Bovine tuberculosis continues to be a major concern for Welsh farmers, despite modest improvements over the past year.
Herd incidence has fallen from 6.8 to 6.7, while prevalence has dropped from 5.7% to 5.3%. The number of cattle slaughtered due to TB also declined by 14% to 11,257 in the 12 months to December 2025.
Welsh Labour has pledged to continue its evidence-based approach, guided by scientific advice and the TB Advisory Group.
Mr Irranca-Davies said the current strategy was delivering results and would be strengthened through continued collaboration with farmers and vets.
“The great thing about our approach now in Wales is that it is led entirely by a scientific, evidence-based approach,” he said.
He ruled out a blanket badger cull, pointing instead to improved testing and early identification of infected cattle as key drivers of progress.
Mr Kurtz said the Welsh Conservatives would support targeted wildlife control where evidence shows persistent infection.
“If there is a persistent breakdown and the wildlife is infected, we would introduce the targeted removal of that wildlife,” he said, adding that the Pembrokeshire Bovine TB project should continue and farmer participation be incentivised.
Plaid Cymru also emphasised the need for robust evidence in addressing wildlife transmission. “We recognise that scientific advice has to be the basis of policy,” said Mr ap Iorwerth.
“To do otherwise is to politicise an issue which is not political.”
Reform UK echoed support for a science-based approach, with Mr Evans stating that intervention should only occur where infection is proven, while acknowledging the wider impact of the disease on farming families.
Water regulation
Water quality regulations in Wales, particularly the all-Wales nitrate vulnerable zone (NVZ) rules, continue to divide political parties and farming groups.
Introduced under the Water Resources (Control of Agricultural Pollution) (Wales) Regulations 2021, the measures apply across the country and have been criticised by farmers as rigid and expensive.
The rules were a major driver of farmer protests in 2024. A review commissioned by the Labour government and carried out independently by Dr Susannah Bolton examined the policy, but several of the most contentious elements remain.
Plaid Cymru has said it would replace what it calls “farming by calendar” with a more flexible, risk-based approach.
“All the farmers I talk to recognise that agriculture has to own those elements of pollution, but we know there have been major practical issues,” said Mr ap Iorwerth.
The Welsh Liberal Democrats have also pledged a review, aiming to better align rules with weather patterns while still addressing river pollution.
Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK have both proposed scrapping the blanket NVZ in favour of targeted, catchment-based systems, with Reform UK committing to early action if elected.
Welsh Labour, however, has defended the current framework.
The Wales Green Party has called for stronger enforcement, arguing agricultural pollution is harming river ecosystems and wildlife, and has pledged increased resources for NRW.
NFU Cymru president Abi Reader outlines her election priorities
Less than a month away are crucial Senedd elections, where 96 MSs will be elected from 16 new constituencies.
The overwhelming majority of constituents rely on Welsh agriculture for the food they eat, while countless others earn a living within the food and drink supply chain. That gives us a real opportunity to ensure Welsh agriculture is front and centre of this campaign.
Key to this will be securing a ring-fenced multi-annual budget to support sustainable growth, alongside a willingness to work with us to evolve the Sustainable Farming Scheme and maintain the current 70:30 split between its Universal and Optional/Collaborative layers.
The costs and bureaucracy imposed by NVZ regulations threaten farm viability, while weather extremes over the past 18 months show that a farming-by-calendar approach does not work.
We need the Welsh government to revisit NVZ regulations as a matter of urgency, alongside an independent review of the wider regulatory burden.
With nearly 13,000 cattle slaughtered annually due to bovine TB, we must have an eradication strategy from the next government that tackles the disease across all vectors.
Welsh agriculture has much to offer in terms of growth and benefits not only for rural communities, but for the whole of Wales. I am excited about the prospects ahead and want to ensure that potential is realised.
Opinion Polling – Dr Jac Larner, Cardiff University
Wales goes to the polls in May 2026 for its most consequential Senedd election yet – and the polling picture could scarcely be more different from what we’re accustomed to.
Labour, which has governed Wales without interruption since devolution began in 1999, is unlikely to remain the largest party. Recent polls put the party on about 14-18% – a far cry from the 40% it won as recently as 2021.
The principal beneficiary is Plaid Cymru, which currently leads in most polling with support hovering around 28-33%.
Much of that growth comes from former Labour voters, particularly those with a stronger Welsh identity – a consolidation of the progressive vote driven partly by shifting national identity trends, and partly by anti-Reform tactical voting.
The Greens are also set for their best ever Welsh performance, again largely at Labour’s expense, drawing support from young graduates in cities such as Cardiff and from rural areas with fewer Welsh identifiers.
Reform UK is the other major story. Surging from near-zero before the 2024 general election to about 25-29% in Senedd polling, the party has rapidly absorbed the Conservative vote – and then some.
Its support is concentrated among voters with a stronger British identity and Eurosceptic instincts. It is winning over relatively few former Labour supporters, but even small inroads could translate into a very strong night.
For the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats – parties with historically significant rural support in Wales – the new proportional electoral system presents a daunting challenge.
Tiny fluctuations in support can mean the difference between winning a handful of seats and near-total wipeout.
With no party near a majority, coalition arithmetic will dominate. A Plaid-led government remains the likeliest outcome – but Welsh politics has rarely been less predictable.