Drop in livestock numbers threatens Welsh economy

A drop in livestock numbers would have devastating consequences for the Welsh economy and the supply chain, the Economy, Trade and Rural Affairs (Etra) committee in the Welsh parliament heard on Wednesday (2 July).

Red meat stakeholders including the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers, the British Meat Processors Association (BMPA) and Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC), provided evidence to the inquiry.

It is investigating the effect decreasing numbers of livestock have on the ability of the processing sector to add value to Welsh produce.

See also: Welsh farming groups reject destocking to meet climate goals

Defra census figures recorded the UK sheep flock at 31.8m head as of 1 June 2023, down 4.1% on the previous year, marking the lowest recorded population since 2011.

The greatest contraction was seen in Wales, down 195,000 head (-4.2%) in the female breeding flock year-on-year.

Writing to the committee, BMPA chief executive Nick Allen highlighted that the reductions and the forecast reductions in livestock numbers in Wales will drastically reduce domestic food security and make the UK more reliant on imported meat, produced less sustainably in other parts of the world.

Mr Allen told the committee that he is concerned about the attitude and the desire within the Welsh government to drive further reductions in numbers and that the current trajectory will damage the economy, tourism, biodiversity and discourage future investment in Wales.

“We’re managing a decline. I see the schemes being introduced supposedly helping farmers with their production systems, but they are totally contrary to what you ought to be doing in Wales.

“This is all going the wrong direction,” he said.

HCC highlighted that, while the total value of aggregate agricultural output rose by about £20m to around £2.21bn in 2024, without adequate livestock numbers to create a workable margin, supply chain businesses such as abattoirs, veterinary practices, marts, feed suppliers and manufacturers, may close or relocate.

“The challenge is that livestock has dropped significantly and is likely to carry on dropping,” said Mr Peralta.

Welsh Conservative shadow rural affairs secretary Samuel Kurtz said: “If meat consumption remains steady while Welsh livestock numbers fall, it clearly means more meat will need to be imported. That’s a nonsense approach.”

The Welsh government however said that it recognises the importance of the red meat sector, including the integral part of abattoirs and understands the concerns raised by meat processors.

A spokesperson told Farmers Weekly it will consider the Committee report in full when published.