Flat fertiliser prices coming to an end


By Roger Chesher


MANY decisionmakers from both the fertiliser industry and the merchant trade are still not at their desks following the Christmas/New Year break and the Oxford conference.


It is therefore not surprising that there has been little change in the markets since mid-December.


However, movement of outstanding orders has been steady over the holiday period, in all segments of the market, so stocks have not been building significantly.


There are signs that shipments of imports are beginning to move, but imported AN purchased today would still be around the 102-103/t mark on farm.


While domestic AN can still be had at the Christmas price of 110-113/t, there are definite signs that the period of flat pricing is about to end.


The supply/demand equation is swinging towards the supplier as demand increases and, by the end of this month nitrogen is anticipated to be around 115/t or in some cases as much as 118/t.


And there is every expectation that domestic ammonium nitrate will exceed 122/t on farm in April/May.


Compounds, too, should creep up by 2/t a month from now on.


This pricing has long been forecast and there is a degree of incredulity within the trade as to why so many farm businesses have left fertiliser purchases so late this season.


An estimated 40% of the market outstanding represents over 1m tonnes of product still to be delivered over the usage period.

CURRENT PRICES

















New-season nitrogen (SP5) 34.5%

February domestic nitrogen

Imported urea

Imported AN

Blended 20.10.10 and 25.0.16

Blended 25.5.5
Liquid nitrogen, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t


January 110-118


118-119


Prilled 124

102-103

115

108

120



















NPK

January

NS products

Complex 25.5.5

113-115

117

15.15.20

136


20.10.10/29.5.5

121


17.17.17

140













After-cut NK cash

0.24.24

TSP (47% P2O5) bagged

Muriate of Potash (60% K2O) bagged

No market

112-114; market virtually over

128

120

 

IRELAND

Forecast prices
















 
Urea

CAN


24.6.12


0.16.36


Complex compounds
27.6.6


Northern Ireland

No market

98

122-125

130

124















 

CAN


24.21/2.10


Urea, imported


0.7.30


Republic of Ireland*

Euro165-178

No market

No market

Euro190

*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.

*Prices in the Republic are Euros

  • Euro1=UK62.17; US$1=UK68.97 on 4 January

     

    Note All illustrated prices are based on 24-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.

    Source: Bridgewater Partnership

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