IGC coarse grain numbers down again
By Olivia Cooper
THE International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its estimate of world coarse grain production by 6 million tonnes.
In its latest report, smaller estimates for maize in China and the USA, barley in the EU, Turkey and Canada, and sorghum in Sudan, resulted in production being lowered to 883m tonnes, which is still 19m tonnes above last years figure.
Stocks have also been lowered again, by almost 5%, largely due to a significantly reduced maize estimate in China, caused by continuing drought.
“Local authorities in the Chinese Jilin province are attempting to reduce excess stocks by subsidising sales from warehouses; also the national government may abolish storage payments later this season,” says the report.
It is expected that maize will be fed in preference to barley in Canada and the EU, due to price differentials.
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Concern over the slowing growth of world production versus rising demand, has prompted the report to look at factors contributing to that growth.
Yields are about 60% higher than they were in the 1970s, but since the record world crop of 610m tonnes in 1997, output has fallen for four successive years.
The greatest improvements have been seen in developing countries, and research into hybrids and genetic modification could provide further scope for increasing average yields.
A switch to better quality milling wheats has lowered output, and the IGC are unsure what effect a reduction in subsidies will have on the trend.
But the biggest effect on production is drought, and it is of some comfort that the five main wheat exporters are located in four continents in both the northern and southern hemispheres, limiting the risk of simultaneous weather disasters.