Labour takes poll lead over Tories in rural heartlands

The Conservatives will struggle to keep hold of their “blue hedge” seats in rural England, if the results of a new poll are replicated in the general election.

Support for the Conservative Party among rural voters has collapsed since the 2019 general election, according to the poll, carried out on behalf of the Country Land and Business Association (CLA).

The Survation poll of 1,000 people found Labour now holds a lead in England’s 100 most rural constituencies. The survey was carried out on 23-30 January.

See also: Farmers turn their backs on the political process

It found that since the last election, support for the Tories has fallen by 25 points to 34%, with just over one-third of respondents saying they would vote for the party.

The Conservatives currently hold 96 of the 100 most rural seats, but the poll findings suggest the Tories may win just 43, with Labour gaining 51. Potential high-profile casualties include Jeremy Hunt, Therese Coffey and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg.

A Farmers Weekly survey last December also showed that support for the Conservatives among farmers is also slipping, but not to this extent.

Support for Labour has risen from 20% in 2019 to 37%, climbing 17 points on the 2019 result. Support for the Liberal Democrats remains largely unchanged, with 14% saying they would vote for the party, down two points on 2019.

‘Up for grabs’

But with England’s rural population standing at 10 million, the poll also revealed a large chunk of the electorate is still up for grabs. Asked which political party they most trusted to stimulate economic growth, the largest group of respondents said “don’t know” (35%).

Only 28% of people polled said Labour understands and respects rural communities and the rural way of life better than the Conservatives (25%).

CLA president Victoria Vyvyan said the results of the poll reveal rural voters feel “politically homeless” and “distant from central government”.

The CLA, which represents nearly 27,000 farmers, landowners and rural businesses across England and Wales, has published a blueprint setting out how parties can help unlock the full potential of the rural economy.

The six documents, or missions, cover topics such as profitable and sustainable farming, affordable housing, rural crime and delivering economic growth in rural areas.

Among these “missions” is a call from the CLA for an increased agricultural budget of at least £4bn/year to invest in a world-class agriculture policy and help farmers deliver meaningful improvements to the environment.

Farm funding plea

The current government is committed to spending an average of £2.4bn/year on the farming budget in England across this parliament, and has spent less than that in each of the past two years. It needs to spend at least £2.7bn this year to hit its own target.

The CLA is also calling for the Welsh government to increase its budget to £1bn/year for the Sustainable Farming Scheme and rural investment.

Mrs Vyvyan added: “The move towards delivering public good through agricultural policy is welcome. However, farmers can’t fight climate change or biodiversity decline on a shoestring budget decimated by inflation.”

Farmers, including the next generation, also need to have confidence that the Westminster government will back their ambitions for food production and nature for the long term, in the face of rising costs and inflationary pressures.

Yet the poll found only 28% of respondents believe it is very or somewhat likely that the next generation living in the countryside will have a better life than their parents.