nvCJD fears overstated
nvCJD fears overstated
PREDICTIONS that tens of thousands of humans will die from new variant CJD, the brain disease linked to BSE, look increasingly far from the mark.
John Pattison, chairman of the governments BSE advisory committee, SEAC, told the NFU annual meeting in London that although it was always dangerous to predict what might happen, it was looking increasingly likely that there would be "relatively small numbers" of new cases of nvCJD.
The critical factor, still unknown, was the average incubation period of the disease in humans. Statistical analysis showed that if the incubation time was about 10 years, then the total cases of nvCJD would be 100-200. At the other end of the spectrum, if the incubation was as long as 25 years then the epidemic could hit as many as 80,000 people.
But, with 23 deaths recorded to date and no sign of a steep rise in nvCJD cases, Prof Pattison said it looked like the total numbers would be at the lower end of the scale.
John Pattison, SEAC chairman, said BSE was fast disappearing.