Oilseeds could bounce back, say traders

By FWi staff

OILSEED rape prices have fallen markedly since the New Year, but growers should not lose hope of another swing in the market, suggest traders.

Values have dropped about 5 in three weeks, to 122-125/t ex-farm, following the release of US Department of Agriculture monthly figures, which showed a bigger crop than had been expected.

“And the weak Dollar against the Euro has helped European prices down, and the strong exchange rate in the UK has hampered any domestic rises,” says John Martin of Banks Agriculture.

Imports from Europe and Australian rapeseed coming into the market have also contributed.

“And with prices up 20 since harvest many decided to take profits while at a high, ahead of the USDA announcement.”

Although growers shouldnt discount further price hikes, suggests Mr Martin.

“With the meat and bonemeal ban, demand for vegetable oil as a substitute for animal fats could push values up – as could falling stocks. But it is such a volatile market.

“Buyers have returned to the market, but selling has stopped. Many farmers have already missed one opportunity, so if there are renewed prices they should not hold back.”

However, Glencores James Read believes that we could have already seen the best of values in the short term.

“Prices have started to stabilise slightly, and the market could continue at similar levels – there is unlikely to be any lift in coming weeks.

“Many growers are aware that there is very little rape about, and are thinking that prices can only go up.

“But to see this happen there needs to be an increase in the oil or meal market – and this is not strong at the moment,” says Mr Read.