By FWi staff
THE UK is unlikely to be over-profile by more than 9.5 million litres, quota agent Charles Holt of the Farm Consultancy Group has predicted.
As a result Mr Holt is concerned that farmers are being frightened into paying much more than they really should.
Clean milk quota prices have increased significantly over the past week as farmers clamour to obtain the quota needed to avoid a possible superlevy payment.
Quota of 4% butterfat has risen to 36ppl as demand remains firm and supply becomes short.
“Prices are racing away driven by the fear that well be 80million litres over quota,” Mr Holt.
“Thresholds will be higher than some people think and assuming Intervention Board figures are correct then yes, we will be over quota but not by that much.”
According to last weeks Intervention Board figures weekly production was down 0.66% on the previous week.
This suggests that if that if this continues until the end of the month March production will finish at 1126million litres.
And with leap year and butterfat adjustments this should produce a final production figure of no more than 9.5million litres, less than a days production.
Mr Holt believes farmers requiring clean quota before the end of the quota year should use back to back deals at 11-12ppl.
“Its a relatively cheap way of obtaining clean quota. But its in short supply.”
Other quota dealers have refused to speculate, saying that farmers should all calculate their own figures and not rely on Intervention Board data.
“If farmers production is within their own quota holding they wont put themselves in jeopardy,” said Paul Jones of Hamiltons national quota agents.