Spud area cut forecast – but not to 98 level
Spud area cut forecast – but not to 98 level
By Andrew Blake
THIS seasons potato area will be 7% down on last year, according to a BPC survey. But with plantings expected to total 144,710ha (180,890 acres) that would still exceed 1998 levels.
The survey of 663 of the 7300 registered producers found 7% of growers plan to drop the crop in 2000, most of them having previously grown less than 10ha (25 acres). But some observers believe cuts may be far deeper.
Compared with last year, when much of the crop appeared to have been grown without a known market outlet, 67% of those surveyed have already targeted a specific buyer this year, the BPC adds.
With UK markets requiring no more than about 6m tonnes, and 1999 production estimated at 6.8m, the planned cuts are a step in the right direction, says the BPCs Rob Burrow.
Much now depends on growing conditions. An increase of only 1t/ha (2.5t/acre) on the five-year mean yield of 43.9t/ha (17.8t/acre) would be enough to push production on the reduced area to over 6.5m tonnes, he notes.
Norfolk-based BPC member and seed producer Tony Bambridge expects planting cuts may be much more than BPC survey suggests.
With very little movement in the markets and prices as low as £30/t many growers may not be in a position to plant, he argues. "Several growers say they dont have the cash to fund next years crop, and they are not exactly screaming for seed." Retailer pressure, the strength of the pound and Dutch imports are all partly to blame, he maintains.
"Its really difficult to know what to do. We shall definitely be growing 250 acres of seed again, but we still havent made up our minds about 150 of our 400 acres of ware which is non-contracted."
PLANTINGPROGRESS
• Area 7% down on 1999.
• 7% of growers dropping crop.
• Still not back to 1998 level.
• Extra 1t/ha = 0.5m t surplus.
Planting progress
Despite drying soils plantings were about two-thirds adrift of last years levels earlier this week.
The BPC estimated 1381ha (3412 acres) were in the ground by the weekend compared with 2160ha (5337 acres) last year. Only in Cheshire, Staffs, Shropshire and East Lothian was progress ahead of.
But Mr Burrow remains optimistic. "There is still plenty of time for maincrops, and with the ground drying up conditions on medium-light soils are becoming ideal."
With no set-backs the first Cornish earlies from under plastic could be lifted by Apr 12, he adds.