Crops across the UK are under mounting pressure following one of the driest springs in more than a century, with declining condition ratings raising concerns over yield potential, according to the latest cropping report from the AHDB and RSK Adas.

The report, based on crop assessments up to 26 May, shows a sharp deterioration in the health of key cereal crops.

Only 36% of winter wheat was rated good or excellent at the end of May – down from 60% a month earlier and well below last year’s 55%.

Winter barley has also suffered, with condition ratings falling from 68% in April to 48%.

See also: Tests confirm yellow rust has overcome major gene in wheat

“This season’s dry spring has hit crops hard, especially those on lighter soils,” said Helen Plant, AHDB senior analyst for Cereals and Oilseeds.

“Poor nitrogen uptake is resulting in thinner, stunted crops. There’s no question that yield potential has taken a hit.”

Spring cereals have also been affected, particularly in the South East and parts of Scotland, while Northern Ireland has fared better with more favourable conditions.

Winter oats and oilseed rape have seen condition ratings slide too, and some farmers are now facing difficult decisions around input costs and nitrogen use, particularly for milling wheat.

While late-May rainfall brought some relief, it may have come too late for many.

“Looking ahead is difficult,” Ms Plant warned.

“Rainfall through June will be paramount in determining final yields and grain quality.”

Yellow rust ‘a growing concern’

Disease and pest levels have remained low so far, thanks to dry weather.

However, the report flags yellow rust as a growing concern in winter wheat in the East Midlands and North East.

Thin canopies and improving soil moisture could also lead to a resurgence of weeds and aphids.

The next few weeks will be decisive – not just for crops, but for the wider market, the AHDB says.

UK feed wheat futures hit a new contract low last week, closing at £178.55/t, as concerns over oversupply and global trends weigh on prices.

View from the NFU

Jamie Burrows, NFU Combinable Crops Board chairman and partner at Sandcross Farming in Hertfordshire and Norfolk, warned that dry conditions and falling grain prices are adding pressure on growers.

Farming 1,000ha of cereals and peas, Mr Burrows said winter barley in parts of Norfolk had suffered badly from the spring drought.

“We had half an inch of rain last week, but it came too late. Earlier in the spring we had nothing, and crops didn’t tiller,” he said.

“In some hotspots, it’s dried off completely; the straw is fit while ears are still green. But crops on heavier soils have held on better.”

With prices low and yield potential down, Mr Burrows said many farmers are questioning returns.

“You start to wonder what will be in the shed at the end of harvest. It’s not a lot of fun at the moment,” he added.

Weather outlook

Meanwhile, the latest Met Office forecast suggests a continued mix of showers and dry spells into mid-June, with a greater likelihood of warmer, settled weather later in the month.

However, the forecaster’s long-range outlook warns the UK is 2.3 times more likely than normal to experience a hotter-than-average summer, with an increased risk of heatwaves.