Dairy forecasts push price recovery back to 2016

Farmgate milk prices may not recover until spring 2016, according to new forecasts.

Rabobank’s latest dairy report says wholesale dairy prices were unlikely to bounce back this year, with prospects better for the first half of 2016.

World milk production is still rising and Russian and Chinese demand are likely to remain sluggish, the analysts said.

See also: UK dairy prices slump to eight-year low

An AHDB dairy report said the predictions could still be affected by bad weather, a particularly big surge in EU milk output or changes to China’s stock estimates.

“If Rabobank’s predictions come to fruition it is unlikely UK farmgate prices will see any major signs of recovery until post-flush 2016,” the levy board said.

Prices on the Global Dairy Trade auction fell for the seventh sale running on Tuesday (16 June).

The auction index dropped 1.3%, with the average winning price of US$2,409/t (£1,530) still down at a six-year low.

Supplies were a little tighter, with the 24,000t sold back 3,700 on the previous sale.

Key commodity results remain low but showed some stability.

Whole milk powder dropped 0.1% to US$2,327/t (£1,478) and skim milk powder fell 0.2% to $1,978/t (£1,256).

Butter and cheddar prices rose, but anhydrous milk fat saw another sharp tumble.

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