Wheat markets hold firm with global crop prospects uncertain

Global grain markets remain supported following reports last week of tighter wheat supplies heading into the 2026-27 crop marketing year.

UK feed wheat futures for the November contract lifted to £191/t shortly after opening on 20 May, up by almost £10/t on the previous month.

With much of last year’s crop now sold on farm, traders are looking to next season amid expectations of reduced global supplies, quality concerns, and challenges with fertiliser availability.

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Crop prospects appear mixed overall, with planting delays in Russia, crop conditions deteriorating in the US, and an El Nino weather event in the southern hemisphere looking increasingly likely.

The US Climate Prediction Centre has forecast an 82% probability of an El Nino weather event between May and July, which could affect crop quality and yields with an increased risk of drought in some countries.

AHDB analysts say El Nino often brings drier weather in Australia and South East Asia, along with changes to weather patterns in South America.

Meanwhile, spring drilling in Russia is reportedly behind, with wet weather delaying plantings of spring wheat in key growing regions.

Russia’s spring planting campaign is the slowest in years, according to Andrey Sizov, head of market analysis firm SovEcon.

However, SovEcon still estimates Russia’s total wheat output for 2026 at almost 90m tonnes, putting it slightly higher than last year.

In the US, wheat plantings are struggling, with the latest US Department of Agriculture crop progress report classing just 27% of winter wheat as in either good or excellent condition.

Mike Castle, market analyst at trading business Stonex, says the proportion of the US winter wheat crop classed as either good or excellent is at its lowest level for the time of year in 30 years.

He said: “The issue remains centred on the plains [the key growing region], where moisture is returning but likely too late for much of the southern portions, given the rapid maturation the crop has experienced amid ongoing dryness.”

Crop conditions across Europe are generally better, with the EU’s Mars crop bulletin forecasting EU wheat yields at 5.8t/ha.

It is a similar picture in the UK with crops generally progressing well on farm, aided by recent rainfall.

Traders say this could leave UK growers well positioned for the new crop year, with the prospect of a reasonable UK crop and a potentially tighter global market to sell into.