Falling pig prices leave producers struggling to break even

British pig producers are once again grappling with tight margins, as farmgate prices fall while costs remain stubbornly high.

The Standard Pig Price (SPP) stood at 190.35p/kg deadweight at the end of January, having dropped by 7p/kg since the start of 2026 and by almost 18p/kg in the past six months.

Meanwhile, the full economic cost of production for the final quarter of 2025 was estimated by the AHDB at 190p/kg deadweight, leaving little room for producers to make a profit.

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Pig producers had been faring better in recent years, with an average margin per slaughter pig of 11p/kg deadweight towards the end of last year.

However, as prices continue to fall, the sector risks returning to a loss-making position, as seen in 2021and 2022.

Adding to the pressure, backlogs at abattoirs and delays within the supply chain have forced farm businesses to keep pigs on farm longer, driving up production costs.

Freya Shuttleworth, engagement and communications manager (Pork) at the AHDB, said downwards pressure on pig prices was likely to continue throughout the first half of 2026, but added that there was scope for price support in the latter half of the year.

“EU reference prices have been falling since the end of June, accelerating in September after China imposed import duties on EU product, and again at the end of November when ASF [African swine fever] was detected in Spain,” she said.

“Historically, the gap between the UK and EU grade S average pig price has been around 30p/kg.

“However, the significant drop in EU prices over recent months, compared to more subdued movement in the UK, has resulted in the gap growing to a record size at almost 70p/kg.”

The UK already ranks as the EU’s second-largest export destination for pork, after China, and this widening price gap between domestic prices and those on the Continent could encourage further imports.

Pig production

UK pigmeat production was up by 2.3% in 2025, totalling 975,200 tonnes.

The AHDB has forecast production to decline marginally to 972,000 tonnes in 2026, with lower slaughter numbers being partially offset by heavier carcass weights.

EU pigmeat production was up by 4% during the first 10 months of 2025.

However, the EU’s Medium Term Outlook forecasts EU pigmeat production to fall by 0.75% a year between 2025 and 2035.

Global production is forecast to increase during the first half of the year, driven by growth in the US, EU, and China, according to RaboResearch.

Chenjun Pan, senior analyst at RaboResearch, said: “Productivity improvements weigh more than previously in the US, China, the EU and Brazil, while the large herd size is another main cause of output growth for China.

“Production in [the second half] of 2026 is expected to slow down and even decline, largely driven by the herd reduction in China and Spain.

“In China, producers scale back to rebalance, while Spain faces ASF-related trade constraints that lead to herd cuts.”