Lamb trade breaks £8/kg barrier driven by strong demand

Finished hoggs lifted to £8/kg deadweight at UK abattoirs in March, putting prices 60p/kg up from year-earlier levels.

Strong seasonal demand throughout Ramadan and in the build-up to Easter has been supporting prices.

Lamb throughputs started the year fairly high, with mutton and lamb production up by 5% on the year during January and February, but adverse weather has since slowed the number of lambs coming forward.

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Industry forecasts expect supplies to be tight throughout 2026, with sheepmeat production forecast to fall 3% year-on-year.

Auctioneers say the best hoggs have been selling for in excess of £200 a head in the past week, with strong demand across all weight classes.

Jonny Williams, managing director at livestock marketing group Farmstock, said the price rise had been driven by a combination of a shortage of lambs and strong demand for Ramadan and Easter.

Looking forward, he said a lot would come down to the volume of hoggs available.

“Looking across Europe, the Spanish and French prices look really, really strong, so that’s going to support exports,” he said.

“The ethnic trade is very strong, and that’s set to continue, so that’s driving prices.

“Even if the price comes back a little bit from where it is now, it’s still very good.”

Mr Williams added that a strategic shift in sheep production systems, from intensive indoor lambing to outdoor April/May lambing, could also have an impact on lamb numbers.

“Those outdoor systems don’t generally support as many. They don’t support the high scanning percentages and produce as high a number of lambs,” he said.

“I also can’t imagine there’s going to be a huge carryover of hoggs with the price where it is.”

High prices for finished hoggs may also encourage some producers to finish a greater proportion of ewe lambs, rather than hold onto them, which could add some support to breeding prices later in the year.

Anecdotal reports to Farmers Weekly from early lambers have hinted at slightly lower lambing percentages in some regions this year, with lots of singles about, a trend which, if materialised throughout lambing, could lead to a smaller lamb crop for 2026.

Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) calculated that Scottish lamb prices averaged more than £4/kg liveweight in the third week of March, 20% higher than the same week last year and 35% above the five-year average.

Iain Macdonald, QMS market insights manager, said: “The early strength we’re seeing in lamb prices and auction throughput highlights the resilience of Scotland’s sheep sector in the face of tight global supply and a challenging economic climate.

“While risks remain – particularly around energy markets, currency shifts and household spending power – the strong seasonal demand and firm export interest puts the industry on a solid footing as we move further into 2026.”

EU market

Heavy lambs in the EU averaged €9.44/kg (817p/kg) deadweight in mid-March, up by 3% on the year, driven by tight supplies across the Continent.

Hannah McLoughlin, an analyst at the AHDB, said: “Continued growth in import volumes is expected as production tightens and market returns remain favourable.

“The UK is well-positioned to capitalise on this demand but potentially faces increasing competition from southern hemisphere suppliers with expanding access.”