UK food supply chains at risk of major shocks

The UK food sector could be sleepwalking into major food shocks with vulnerabilities within the current “just in time” logistic system, according to Prof Tim Lang of the University of London.

Prof Lang, who authored the National Preparedness Commission report on food resilience, told delegates at the NFU Conference in Birmingham on Tuesday 24 February that the UK government was not taking food security seriously enough.

See also: Farming resilience critical to UK food security – NFU chief

He said: “We are not getting the leadership we need from central government. We created a food system in the name of efficiency, which is now inappropriate for where we are.”

The UK produces about 60% of its food, according to Prof Lang, but he believes the actual figure is less after including all the hidden inputs.

He said food weaponisation is a new reality, as seen in Ukraine, Sudan, Gaza, and Israel.

“The new shocks include ransomware, drone warfare, climate change, floods and droughts.”

Prof Lang called for a shift from just in time delivery to just in case. He said: “Lean, efficient systems, are vulnerable and in a world of shocks you want flexibility.

“We have got to stop below cost of production selling of food; we have got to reverse the pricing squeeze on primary producers.”

He suggested that the UK also needed to build up its domestic food production with good land, people, resources, and infrastructure available.

UK market

The UK agriculture sector is small in comparison to its market size, according to Harry Smit, senior food system Analyst at Rabobank.

He said: “France, Italy, Spain, comparatively speaking, have twice as big an agriculture sector compared to their populations as the UK.”

Mr Smit suggested that the UK had a significant trade deficit of roughly £40bn as a result of this.

Rabobank analysis also found that UK consumers are spending a lot of money on food by comparison.

“Your market is maybe closer to home with high income consumers spending more income on food.”

Changing marketplace

China, North America and Europe are expected to stand out as the three leading food markets in the world by 2035, according to Rabobank research.

The increasing prevalence of weight loss drugs is expected to shift demand for products in the coming years, with 4% of households currently using these products.

Mr Smit also outlined the rise of alternative proteins; however, he suggests it is likely to take several decades before they are more commonplace.

“We expect alternative proteins to meat to grow by 10% to 15% a year and alternative dairy to increase by 7-8% per year in Europe as a whole.

“But overall, the market share remains relatively small and will probably remain a niche product by 2035.”