Tight beef supply sees deadweight prices soaring

Tight international and domestic beef supplies are said to be responsible for a near 40% increase in cattle deadweight prices in just nine months, according to Wales’s red meat levy body Hybu Cig Cymru (HCC).

The trend, HCC forecasts, will see prices holding above the £7/kg threshold, with beef prices increasing weekly.

Strong prices, it says, are likely to continue as supply tightens not only in the UK, but across Europe.

See also: Tremendous beef trade here to stay with supplies scarce

“Prime cattle deadweight prices in England and Wales have risen dramatically since late 2024 and are now £2/kg higher than the same period last year,” said Glesni Phillips, HCC’s intelligence, analysis and business insight executive.

The steer average broke historical records at £5/kg in September 2024 and reached £6/kg by February 2025, Ms Phillips said.

In April it lifted above £7/kg for the first time.

“EU beef prices have recently climbed more rapidly than here, narrowing the typical price gap to around 94.8p/kg for steers as of March, which could enhance UK export competitiveness,” she said.

“Although rising prices in Ireland will likely mean higher import prices domestically.”

Cattle throughput

UK prime cattle throughput for the first quarter of 2025 totalled 508,000 head, down 3% or 14,000 head year-on-year, with declines across all categories (young bulls down 12%, steers 4% and heifers 1%) according to Defra figures.

Heifer throughput continues to be elevated compared with historical levels and now represents 43% of total prime throughput (219,100 head), up from 40% in 2022.

Ms Phillips said: “Current prime cattle throughput levels are at their lowest since 2022, which was to be expected as the BCMS cattle population figures did indicate there would be fewer animals available for beef production in the longer term.”

Cost to consumers

While the Office for National Statistics highlights that inflation has eased for the second month in a row, shoppers are feeling the pinch as consumer and business costs continue to rise.

“Consumer experts Kantar report the total volume of retail beef sold during the 12 weeks to 23 March 2025 was stable on the year, but an increase in the average price by some 5% drove a 4% increase in total spend overall,” Ms Phillips added.

Further detailed analysis by the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers (Aims) shows that overall fresh meat prices increased by 11.53% year-on-year in April, and by 3.48% for the month.

Commenting on the figures from its Meat Inflation Tracker Report, Aims head of communications Tony Goodger said the increases at retail were being driven by 12-month rises across beef and lamb cuts of about 20%.

“Consumers looking for the very best value should go for British farm assured chicken legs, as they haven’t moved at all during the last month and are 5p/kg (2%) down year-on-year,” he added.