Lamb contingency plan needed for Brexit

Contingency planning will be essential for lamb producers selling in the new year, regardless of how Brexit negotiations progress.

AHDB lead red meat analyst Duncan Wyatt has estimated there will be a 5% drop in lamb value based on the administrative burden of inspections, documents and health certificates.

In the event of a no-deal, AHDB economic modelling predicts a 25% drop in lamb values.

Industry leaders estimate that 33% of UK sheepmeat is exported to the EU annually.

See also: Exit payments: What should farmers do to prepare for 2022?

Mr Wyatt advised maintaining strong communication channels with buyers and urged businesses to look at how stock could be held over during periods of market disruption.

On the bright side, AHDB forecasts do not account for the vagaries of currency fluctuations, which could help the affordability of UK lamb if the pound weakens further.

Lambs supplies are globally tight, with New Zealand expected to export 8.42% less lamb in 2020 and rear one million fewer lambs this season due to summer drought.

Ayr

A strong lamb price and the looming end of the Brexit transition period have encouraged vendors to market lambs earlier than normal in Ayrshire, which has built up some slack in the system.

“In this area, if prices do drop sharply, sellers will be able to hold tight and wait for three or four weeks to make them scarce,” said auctioneer Drew Kennedy of Craig Wilson Livestock.

Almost 30% more prime lambs went through the auction ring at Ayr on Monday (7 December) and met a 14% higher trade compared with the same sale last year.

An entry of 2,183 prime lambs averaged 215.5p/kg and settled at an SQQ of 215p/kg.

“It’s amazing the trade has stayed up considering the numbers of lambs coming forward,” Mr Kennedy told Farmers Weekly. “Folk who normally sell in February and March are waiting as normal, but many January lambs coming to weight are being sold now.”

He said heavy lambs were £4-£5 a head dearer than a month ago, while export buyers had paid £92-£96 for 42kg lambs, with Beltexes making £100-plus.

Rugby

Good quality export lambs averaged 240p/kg at Rugby on Monday (7 December), where 1,180 lambs left an SQQ of 236.2p/kg and 1,878 averaged 226.9p/kg.

Auctioneer Tom Wrench said 42kg lambs made £92-£108 and 48kg lambs made £94-£102, with exporters competing fiercely for the best lambs for Dutch and Belgian markets.

He said the biggest concern on buyers’ lips was extra paperwork, which would slow down the trade regardless of what Brexit deal was done.