Mixed response to Scottish carbon budget advice
© Mrdoomits/Istockphoto Recommendations by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) that Scotland should reduce its greenhouse gas emissions through electrification and changes to agriculture have received a mixed reaction.
Welcoming the report, Just Transition Commission co-chairs Prof Dave Reay and Satwat Rehman said the advice given to the Scottish government makes it clear that, to reach a low carbon economy, more than fine words and wind farms are needed.
“It’s now time to get into delivery mode so that people everywhere in Scotland can take pride in our contribution to tackling the climate crisis and see the lasting positive effects,” they said.
See also: Welsh farming groups reject destocking to meet climate goals
Opposition to the recommendations, however, came from the agricultural sector, with industry leaders saying they are committed to playing their part, but livestock shouldn’t be the “sacrificial lamb at the altar”.
“There’s progress in recognising the contribution farmers and land managers can make to reaching net zero, but we must be crystal clear: slashing livestock numbers is not the solution,” said NFU Scotland president Andrew Connon.
Scottish agriculture, he said, is already among the most climate-efficient in the world, with many farmers already adopting new technologies, renewable energy and nature-friendly practices.
“With the right backing, we can go further, but that journey must be fair, practical and properly supported,” he said.
Emissions
To meet expectations, Scotland needs to reduce its emissions by 94% in the next 20 years compared to 1990 levels, the report says.
Emissions here have fallen by 50% between 1990 and 2022 but, despite agriculture reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 12%, it was still classed as the second highest-emitting sector in Scotland, accounting for 19% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2022.
“Scotland’s new system of carbon budgets will help guide the action we need to get to net zero by 2045. But we do need to see action now,” said interim CCC chairman Prof Piers Forster.
Committee out of touch
Scottish red meat levy body Quality Meat Scotland (QMS) has also criticised the report, saying the CCC is out of touch with Scotland’s societal needs and grossly undermines the many benefits of agriculture.
“At a time when global demand for nutritious protein is rising year-on-year, it is unacceptable to overlook the food production capability of our Scottish farming sector,” said QMS chairwoman Kate Rowell.
Ms Rowell added that QMS’s economic modelling to 2030 suggests the UK could face a shortfall of 124,000t of beef.Â
“This is a gap we have the capacity to fill domestically, avoiding unnecessary reliance on imports,” she said.
CCC recommendations for climate change mitigation
While electrification is expected to make the biggest difference in greenhouse gas emissions in the next 10 years, agriculture and land use are also required to make significant improvements by 2045.
Technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs), the CCC suggests, could be deployed rapidly and help to reduce emissions by half, but the right incentives must be in place.
The capacity of offshore and onshore wind and solar could also more than triple from 15GW in 2023 to 49GW by 2035, increasing to 66GW by 2045 and provide 98% of electricity generation in Scotland in 2035.
However, by the time the third and fourth carbon budgets start, farmers in Scotland will have to diversify away from livestock farming, it says.
It recommends reducing cattle and sheep by 26% by 2035 compared to 2023 stocking levels, planting 23% more trees by 2045, while consumers should be eating 30% less meat and 20% less dairy by 2045.
Further potential for Scotland to hit its targets can be found in restoring peatland and planting new woodland, essential for land-based carbon sequestration.
Next steps
The Scottish government will publish a statement setting out how it intends to respond to this advice within three months, and, by May next year, lay draft regulations to set the carbon budgets or make a statement to the Scottish parliament setting out reasons for not doing so.
The Scottish government is also required to publish a climate-change plan containing its proposals and policies to meet legislated emissions reduction targets.
Acting net-zero secretary Gillian Martin said: “We will carefully consider the committee’s advice before bringing forward regulations to set carbon budget levels for Scotland.
“This will include consideration of the target-setting criteria set out under the act, and an assessment of whether the pace of decarbonisation is appropriate for people, sectors and businesses across Scotland.”