‘No magic number’ for upland sheep stocking, review finds

A scientific review of grazing in the Lake District has concluded there is no single stocking rate that will deliver nature recovery across the fells.

The independent review, published in July through the Grazing for Good project, examined the role of livestock in the uplands following changes to stocking levels under Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) rollover agreements from 2020.

See also: Natural England under fire for stocking rate policy

The project brings together farming, industry and community groups to examine the future of hill sheep farming in the Lake District, gathering evidence on how productive, resilient farm businesses can be maintained alongside environmental management and the wider social and economic benefits.

It is led by the Herdwick Sheep Breeders Association, West Lakeland CIC and the Federation of Cumbrian Commoners, with the National Sheep Association (NSA) supporting and managing the project.

Stocking rates questioned

A central issue for the review was Natural England’s 2020 Grazing Regimes for Nature Recovery report (opens in PDF) and its findings around low stocking rates.

Natural England reported that recovery of existing site of special scientific interest habitats had been “universally good” below a year-round average of 0.4 ewes/ha, with good recovery sometimes recorded up to about 0.5 ewes/ha.

It found no sites stocked at or above 0.6 ewes/ha where habitats were fully recovering.

However, the latest Grazing for Good review (opens in PDF) concluded that the 0.5 ewes/ha figure was drawn mainly from local observations rather than a wider scientific evidence base and should be treated as a cautious local reference point rather than a universal target.

It found habitat condition was influenced by a wider range of factors, including nitrogen deposition, burning, climate change, deer, historic management and the timing and pattern of livestock grazing.

Some upland habitats also depend on grazing to remain in good condition.

Where purple moor-grass is already dominant, for example, removing sheep can allow coarse vegetation to build up and crowd out smaller plants.

Abby Cook, NSA project manager, said the review gave those with an interest in the fells a common evidence base, adding that its “clearest message is there is no magic number”.

“What works on one fell may not work on the next, so decisions need to be made with the farmers and commoners who manage each area.”

Financial consequences

The review also considered the financial consequences of changing stocking levels.

Agri-environment and other scheme payments accounted for just under 60% of farm business income on English upland livestock farms in 2024-25, according to Defra’s Farm Business Survey.

It concluded stocking changes should therefore be considered against the viability of the whole farm rather than the fell grazing calendar alone.

NSA chief executive Phil Stocker said sheep grazing was often portrayed as the problem in the uplands, but the evidence showed a more complex picture.

“A key finding of the review is that timing and pattern of grazing matters,” he said.

Mr Stocker called on government to consider how farmers could be supported where more intensive shepherding was needed to deliver targeted grazing.

The Grazing for Good project runs until December 2027, and responses to the review will inform its second phase.

Agency response

Responding to the report and comments, a Natural England spokesperson said: “We recognise the pressures facing hill farmers in the Lake District and are working with farming organisations to find stocking approaches that support nature recovery and farming businesses.

“We keep our approach to stocking rate advice under review and adjust advice where evidence shows it is needed. We will carefully consider the report’s findings and recommendations as part of that process.”