Fertiliser price rises should stick
By Roger Chesher
RATIFICATION of the EU anti-dumping levy on Russian AN should be approved next week.
But the delay is having less of an effect on trade, say the majors, who now report movement of “reasonable” volumes of nitrogen and other top-dressing products into the arable sector.
Prices have not moved significantly this week, although there are “deals” to be had as the trade is prepared to go out and do what it can to get business.
However, from February onwards, the business will start to come to the trade, with an estimated 40% of the arable market and most of the grass market still to be sold.
In these circumstances, the trade will do what it can to maximise prices, and with farmers forced to shop around to effect delivery at a logistically difficult time, price rises should stick.
Imports are still down and the pressure will be on domestic suppliers to satisfy the market.
At least product is moving in Britain; nothing is selling in Ireland, as farmers move to a just-in-time purchase decision.
The few boatloads of urea that are in the country are not selling, and have yet to be priced. Until the market starts to move, all prices in both the north and south are academic.
In a surprising turnaround, the Finnish Parliament has rejected its governments recommendations to support the formation of a giant Scandinavian chemical conglomerate involving Kemira.
The deal is now off, and plans for the future of Kemira, including fertilisers, have been set back to their position of two years ago.
While its back to the drawing board for their masters, for Kemira in the UK it is business as usual.
New-season nitrogen (SP5) 34.5% | January domestic nitrogen | Imported urea | Imported AN |
Blended 20.10.10 and 25.0.16 | Blended 25.5.5 | Liquid nitrogen, 37kg/100l or 29.6% N/t |
December 110-113 | 115 | Prilled 124 | 100-104 |
113 | 107 | 120 |
NPK | December | NS products |
Complex 25.5.5 | 113 | 117 |
15.15.20 | 134 | |
20.10.10/29.5.5 | 120 | |
17.17.17 | 139-140 |
After-cut NK cash | 0.24.24 | TSP (47% P2O5) bagged | Muriate of Potash (60% K2O) bagged |
No market | 112-114; market virtually over | 125 | 122 |
IRELAND CAN 24.6.12 0.16.36 Complex compounds
Forecast prices
Urea
27.6.6
Northern Ireland
No market
98
122-125
130
124
CAN | 24.21/2.10 | Urea, imported | 27.21/2.5 | |
Republic of Ireland* | 130-140 | No market | No market | 150 |
*Note in the Republic of Ireland nutrients are expressed as elements not oxides. Analyses will not be directly comparable with those used in the UK.
*Prices in the Republic are IR
Note All illustrated prices are based on 24-tonne loads for immediate payment. Prices for smaller loads and those with credit terms will vary considerably.
Source: Bridgewater Partnership