Foot-and-mouth toll could top 4000

23 March 2001



Foot-and-mouth toll ‘could top 4000’

By Alistair Driver

MORE than 4000 cases of foot-and mouth disease could be recorded by the end of June, unless major action is taken, a Government report has warned.

The study by the Veterinary Laboratory Agency projects that Britain can expect 4411 cases of the disease, in spite of current controls.

The official report predicts that the disease would grow fast in the next few weeks and continue for many months.

This is one of three epidemiological reports being prepared for the Government, all of which say the disease will continue to grow for some time.

Speedier tracing of the disease and a 1.5km pre-emptive cull in the vicinity of an outbreak are needed to control the disease, say VLA researchers.

An independent study by a University of Edinburgh team puts the figure at more than 918.

It calls for earlier diagnosis and a shorter period between suspicion of disease and slaughter.

A second independent study by Imperial College, London estimates 70 new cases a day for at least the next fortnight.

It also urges the Government to speed up the time between diagnosis and slaughter and calls for a 3km “ring cull” around outbreaks to control the disease.

The Imperial College team also claims that the use of vaccinations could have a significant effect in tackling foot-and-mouth.

Robin Bell, head of the Governments veterinary international trade team said that while he did not favour vaccination use, it could play a role.

He said vaccination could be used to “dampen-down” disease infected areas, freeing up resources, but counter factors included costs and effect of exports.

Six cases of foot-and-mouth have been confirmed already on Friday (23 March) today, This brings the total confirmed cases in the UK to 486.

Three outbreaks have been confirmed Cumbria and Herefordshire.