IGC drops world wheat estimate

By FWi staff

WORLD wheat production has been put 2 million tonnes lower at 584 million tonnes by the International Grains Council in their estimate today (Tuesday).

Reduced estimates for Argentina, Russia and Kazakhstan have contributed to this most recent decline in production.

World trade predictions remain unchanged at 95 million tonnes, with a higher figure for Russia. Declines in China, India and Iraq offset the increases expected in Russia.

As a result of small adjustments for several countries, world consumption is forecast 3 million tonnes higher than last month at 594 million tonnes, noted the IGC. This recent increase has been mainly caused by increased feeding in the early part of the season.

“Total use in the USA could be some 2.5 million tonnes more than last year,” said a spokesman from the IGC.

Feed use is expected to show a small increase in the EU, but is unlikely to recover in Russia, while total consumption in South America, where 85% of all use is for human consumption, is expected to remain steady at 21 million tonnes.

World stocks are predicted 6 million tonnes down on at 122 million tonnes, while those countries in the five major exporters are forecast 1 million down at 54 million tonnes, or 44% of the world trade.

World estimates – wheat
  95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 (forecast as at 28/1098) 98-99 (forecast as at 23/11/98)
Production 541 583 610 586 584
Trade 90 95 95 95 95
Consumption 553 579 587 591 594
Stocks 106 110 133 128 122

See more