Opinion: We have to reimagine farming for a warming world
© Tim Scrivener Extreme weather is the new normal. As we swelter through a third heatwave in as many months I defy anyone who has experienced the wild swings of climate since 2018 to argue that climate change is not now exerting a throttling influence on UK farming.
That we have endured the three worst harvests on record in the last six (2020, 2024 and 2025) speaks for itself.
See also: Opinion – land values defy the realities of farming
About the author
Happy memories of a benign autumn in 2025 should only highlight the relief felt at a “normal” planting season, the like of which a decade ago would have been unremarkable.
Each season brings new weather records. The fundamental optimism of the farmer – that next season will be better – is increasingly forlorn. The world has changed, and we must change with it.
There are many challenges we must address to make agriculture resilient in the face of climate change and capable of not just surviving but thriving.
How do we build the capacity into our soils to cope with both flood and drought? Or face the challenges posed by increasing prevalence of pests and disease?
Even our farm buildings and infrastructure will need to be reimagined for a warming world, not to mention the realities of keeping livestock and working outdoors in 40-degree heat.
Water for irrigation will become increasingly scarce, while even our environmental aspirations will be put to the test as new plantings wither and soil carbon becomes increasingly difficult to build.
Happily, many of the solutions are with us already. Building soil resilience via the application of “regenerative” or “good, old-fashioned” farming practices (depending on your preferred definition) is already well understood – as is the value of good, old-fashioned field drainage.
The agroforestry we have at the Allerton Project is once again proving its worth this summer, giving welcome shade to livestock and grass alike. Vaccines are constantly in development to battle the latest disease.
Yet most farm adaptations to a changing climate are long-term themselves, often requiring short-term trade-offs and up-front expenditure.
As usual, most climate-related risk sits at the farm gate while the supply chain keeps it at arm’s length through an elastic commitment to UK farmers and growers.
Government talks a good game on climate adaptation, but the Climate Change Committee’s latest progress report (2025) is highly critical of its progress in helping build climate resilience into the economy, not least in food and farming.
Our future farmed landscape will undoubtedly look different: Defra has modelled that as much as 75% of our best and most versatile (Grades 1-3a) land will cease to be so by 2050 and, despite our best efforts, much marginal land will inevitably be lost from cropping and by necessity be turned back to deep-rooting grasses, agroforestry and grazed livestock production – a more resilient type of farming.
Yet such change at scale can’t happen in isolation. It raises fundamental questions about food production, land use and consumer expectations.
These are not decisions individual farmers can make alone. They require a broader, well-informed national conversation about what we want from our countryside and food system.
Climate adaptation will be one of the defining challenges of the next 20 years, one we can meet, but only if farmers, government, businesses and consumers pull in the same direction.
Business as usual is drawing to a close: we must adapt for what comes next.