Quietly confident about prices as lambing looms
Quietly confident about prices as lambing looms
Countdown to lambing has
started at Cilgoed and the
hope is that lambs will fetch
better prices than this
years crop, the last of
which left the farm recently.
Robert Davies reports
ALL of last seasons lambs have been sold and fingers are crossed for good weather up to the start of lambing on St Davids Day, Mar 1.
Scanning indicates that ewes tupped in October should produce a 180% lambing, 20% higher than those that took the ram in appalling conditions a month later. Ceiriog Jones is disappointed, but not surprised, that 4% of the later-mated ewes are empty. However, friends have reported 10% of barreners.
Economists at a recent Meat and Livestock Commission outlook conference he attended suggested that fewer ewes were bred last autumn. This, coupled with a lower than average conception rate and reduced beef consumption in France and Germany, could put a welcome edge on lamb prices later in the year.
"The last 300 of this years lambs made up to £49/head and averaged about £40, so the average was probably £5/head up over the season as a whole. The firm demand for old season lambs means I would have been better off retaining the 200 ewe lambs I sold for breeding last autumn and finishing them.
"If this is repeated I think breeders like myself will cease producing ewe lambs for lowland flying flocks."
Lambing is due to take place in three blocks because only family labour is available at Cilgoed. Around 200 older ewes, some of them broken-mouthed, will lamb first and, if price forecasts are good, some or all of their lambs will be creep-fed to finish in time to pick up early season prices.
The oldest ewes will also be sold after weaning to relieve grazing pressure further. The next 200 ewes will start lambing in mid-March and the rest at the end of March and early April.
Mr Jones is pleased with the condition of most of the flock after the wet autumn and winter. With the farm being over quota, 55 in-lamb ewes were sold for £50/head and 17 barren ewes made £17 each. Five barren suckler cows are also due to go and eight suckler cow quota units have been leased out.
The stocking adjustments were necessary to protect Cilgoeds extensification payments after an IACS check revealed that Mr Jones was claiming 6.9ha (17 acres) too much. The penalty was a 20ha (50 acre) reduction in the total qualifying area.
"All the experts at conferences are predicting that we will all be running fewer stock in future, and concentrating on improving quality to get the best market prices. Environmental payments and changes to HLCAs mean playing the numbers game and chasing headage payments will be a thing of the past."
Mr Joness commitment to improving stock quality took him and another Beulah breeder, who is also involved in the Welsh Sheep Strategys monitored farm technology transfer project, on a long trek to Scotland to put rams lambs though a CT scanner.
"We have been assured that using CT scan information can accelerate the rate of genetic gain by 40%. Interest among Beulah breeders is growing and semen has been collected from two of my high index rams."
In recent weeks Mr Jones has been working with six like-minded farmers setting up a buying group called Arbed Amaeth (Saving Farmers). The organisation is currently informal but the seven have already obtained discounts on items like pharmaceuticals, fertiliser and dog food.
The latter is being fed to the farms newest worker, a blue-eyed traditional Welsh sheepdog named Kiwi. A few enthusiasts rescued the breed, which almost became extinct because of the popularity of the border collie. Now there is strong demand for puppies, especially from hill farmers who like the breeds stamina and ability to handle very large groups of sheep in rough terrain.
All cattle are now housed because the wet weather meant they were reluctant to use the saturated sacrifice area fenced off adjacent to the main sheds. Five store cattle, including three bulls that were missed when others were castrated, have been sold. This leaves 22 Belgian Blue steers for sale off grass in May.
Mr Jones is still undecided about what to do with 24 remaining store heifers. The best grown will probably be finished on concentrate and the rest run on in the hope that they will "grow into money". *
Lambs will soon start arriving at Cilgoed, and the first batch will be pushed to try and catch good
early season prices.
FARMFACTS
• An 81ha (200 acre) farm in north Wales owned and run by Ceiriog Jones and his wife Mair who are also tenants on a further 18ha (44 acres). There is 10ha (25 acres) on an 11-month let.
• Most land is steep, classified as severely disadvantaged. It carries 600 Builth Wells-type Beulah ewes, 250 ewe lambs and 60 spring and summer calving suckler cows.
• Older ewes not breeding replacements are put to Bluefaced Leicester tups to produce Welsh Mules for sale as ewe lambs or yearlings. Bull calves, once finished on farm, now planned to be sold on green CIDs.
• Mr Jones was a Welsh Sheep Strategy scholarship winner in 1998. The farm is one of three in Wales selected for an MLC co-ordinated technology transfer project.