Poorer yields predicted for harvest 2013

Harvest prospects are taking another beating after confirmation that winter plantings are down by almost one-fifth compared with a year ago.


A drop of almost 500,000ha (25%) in the winter wheat area across England and Wales has been exacerbated by poor establishment, a severe shortage of spring seed and some of the coldest March temperatures for more than half a century.


The total area under winter cereals and oilseeds is down by 19% to 2.417m hectares, suggests the latest HGCA/AHDB survey. Winter wheat is estimated at 1.394m hectares; winter barley at 279,000ha (-19%) and winter oats at 56,000ha (-30%). Rape is virtually unchanged, but is in a bad way.


On top of the decline in area, winter wheat crops are likely to be poorly established this season, said AHDB senior analyst Jack Watts. “This may make crops less resilient against any extreme weather into spring and summer,” he warned.


The figures follow a tough season for many in 2012. Lincolnshire grower Mark Pettitt, who farms near Gainsborough, said dead patches and slug damage meant a 10m tonnes national wheat harvest rather than the usual 13.5-15m tonnes was a real prospect. “Two bad years in a row is really going to hurt.”


The latest statistics do not include plantings after 1 December 2012. But growers trying to drill later have been thwarted by cold weather and saturated soils. Last year saw the third warmest March on record. In contrast, this week saw the coldest 11 March since 1958.


Severe shortages of spring seed are adding to the challenge. Many farmers must choose between sowing winter varieties well past their “drill-by” date and hoping for the best, or gambling on imported spring varieties that are untested in UK conditions.


As a result, many growers are keen to avoid selling too much grain forward. Ashley Gilman of agricultural co-operative AtlasFram said: “Understandably, farmers don’t want to commit to forward prices until seed is in the ground and they can see it is definitely going to get away.”


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