Fertiliser shock risks 2027 crops, NFU warns

Farmers could scale back planting or cut fertiliser use for the 2027 season unless costs are brought under control, the NFU has warned.

In a new Fertiliser Resilience Plan, the NFU said ongoing disruption to global markets linked to conflict in the Middle East is keeping prices elevated and leaving UK growers exposed.

Fertiliser costs surged earlier this year as instability around key shipping routes restricted supply. In April, prices were nearly 40% higher than before the conflict, with urea reaching about £635/t and imported ammonium nitrate £535/t.

See also: Farmers demand halt to fertiliser carbon tax plans

With the UK importing roughly 60% of its nitrogen fertiliser, the union said farm businesses are highly vulnerable to global shocks at a time when many are planning ahead for future cropping.

NFU president Tom Bradshaw warned that uncertainty over input costs is already affecting decision-making.

“If fertiliser remains unaffordable, growers may have to reduce applications or reconsider planting altogether,” he said.

A central recommendation is to pause the introduction of the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), due in 2027.

The NFU said adding a carbon price to fertiliser imports now risks pushing costs higher and increasing pressure on food production.

The plan also proposes a safety net if prices spike further. If ammonium nitrate reaches £500/t, growers would be eligible for support covering up to 70% of additional costs, capped at £50,000.

Alongside financial measures, the NFU is calling for clearer market data on fertiliser supply and improved guidance on nutrient management to help farmers respond to volatile conditions.

Mr Bradshaw said the situation underlined the need to strengthen domestic resilience.

“We need a system that gives farmers stability, rather than leaving them exposed to global events beyond their control,” he added.

The plan was due to be outlined by Mr Bradshaw and NFU Combinable Crops Board vice-chairman Andrew Williamson on the opening day of the Cereals event at Diddly Squat Farm in Oxfordshire on 10 June, as growers begin looking ahead to the 2027 season.

Tesco trials

Separately, Tesco highlighted the potential role of low-carbon fertilisers in improving food production resilience.

The retailer said trials on its Low Carbon Concept Farm in Lincolnshire delivered a 50% reduction in carbon emissions from potato production without affecting yield or quality.

A Defra spokesman said: “We are working with farmers, including the NFU, to manage the impacts of the Middle East conflict on the sector and keep costs down across the supply chain.

“We’ve already cut red diesel to its lowest rate in over 20 years, we are seeking views on suspending fertiliser tariffs to help farmers, and have ensured cutting tariffs to help shoppers does not impact any significant UK agriculture production.”