Rain could save impending store lamb glut

September may have brought essential rain to build grass covers and get winter root crops growing to service demand for an anticipated bumper store lamb season.

National figures from Defra and AHDB suggest many lambs remain on farms after creep prices and dry weather slammed the breaks on lamb growth rates.

High lamb production was forecast in the AHDB summer outlook, which pegged flock expansion at 3% this year, and a prime lamb uplift of 2% in the second half of the year.

June and July slaughter figures are back 6% on the year, to 188,690, after being 14% up on the year from March to May.

See also: Eyes on early store lambs after festival bonanza

August slaughter figures are still to be finalised, but liveweight throughputs are back 12.4% on the year, at 290,068 for the four weeks in August. Deadweight surveys suggest processors have had 9% fewer lambs on the year for the same period, at 169,188 head.

Store sales through markets in July and August have totalled 314,293 head, which is 14.5% back on the year. Average prices have levelled at £79, about £1.50 a head up on last year.

Eyeing bumper numbers

Bentham’s growing store lamb following has somewhat bucked this trend. The past five weeks have seen 24,986 lambs sold, with averages levelling at £80,416. This is just 2.7% back in volume and nearly £1 a head dearer on the year.

However, at the most recent sale, which saw 3,749 head sold, the effects of the drought were starting to show, with the lowest average of the year so far (£74.60 a head).

Short-keep lambs regularly made £88 to £98 a head, while three-quarter Beltex lambs were the pick of the trade at £100, topping at £105.50.

Sheep auctioneer Greg MacDougall said numbers had been supported by entries from drought-hit areas such as East Anglia and Buckinghamshire, as farmers had opted to market where grass was more plentiful.

“Where the fat trade will go is unsure,” said Mr MacDougall. “Last year, the trade was fantastic right through November and December, but the cost of living is going to be a big factor, so we will see how consumers respond.”

He said plenty of rain – forecast for this week – would help store demand, adding that the best carcasses and continental breeding should reward buyers. “At £105 Beltexes look dear, but if they make £145 when finished there should be margin. ”

He suggested some big yardings this autumn, possibly as high as 10,000-head.