Analysis: Scottish farming demands delivery after SNP pledges

Scottish agriculture enters a new parliamentary term with farm support largely settled, but delivery still uncertain.

The Scottish National Party’s (SNP’s) commitment to maintain more than £660m a year in support, including direct payments, is now established policy.

But with a minority government facing wider fiscal pressure, attention is shifting from headline budgets to how far that settlement can stretch in practice.

See also: Scottish farmers seek funding clarity after SNP minority win

For the sector, the central question is no longer whether support continues, but whether it can sustain production, meet climate goals and underpin rural economies without unintended consequences.

Gillian Martin MSP has replaced Mairi Gougeon as cabinet secretary, with a slightly revised job title of minister for climate action and rural affairs, while Jim Fairlie remains agriculture minister, offering some continuity.

However, the parliamentary landscape has changed significantly, with 64 of 129 MSPs newly elected.

“There’s lots of change,” says NFU Scotland (NFUS) director of policy Jonnie Hall.

“We’ve spent the past five years putting the structures and framework for agricultural transition in Scotland in place. The next five years are all about delivery.”

The Scottish government’s Rural Support Plan commits to retaining about 70% of agricultural funding in direct payments, worth more than £540m a year, alongside continued backing for marginal and upland areas through the Less Favoured Area Support Scheme, widely seen as a lifeline for hill farming.

The remainder is directed toward environmental outcomes, investment, innovation and advisory support.

Gradual transition 

The transition remains gradual, with most arrangements unchanged.

However, from this year non-organic farms with 15ha or more of arable land must dedicate at least 5% to Ecological Focus Areas to qualify for greening payments.

The Future Farming Investment Scheme is also expected to return this summer, offering an early test of how capital support is targeted following concerns about oversubscription in its first round (see ‘FFIS relaunch welcomed – but NFUS wants reforms’).

While headline funding has been maintained, industry leaders warn that its real-terms value continues to decline.

“If anything, we would like to see an increase,” says Mr Hall, pointing to rising input costs. “In real terms the funding package has gone down year-on-year.”

Landowner organisation Scottish Land & Estates (SLE) echoes that concern.

Senior policy adviser Eleanor Kay says: “A flat cash settlement means a continued reduction in real-terms spending power, which will inevitably affect the sector’s ability to invest.”

Mr Hall argues that support must be viewed as investment rather than subsidy.

“If you undermine Scottish agriculture, you’re undermining a lot of other things you want to achieve,” he says.

Food security in focus

Food production is becoming more politically sensitive as ministers pursue climate and environmental objectives.

The Scottish government has pledged to balance these priorities while maintaining output.

However, proposals such as supermarket price caps on staples including milk, bread and eggs have heightened concern within the industry.

Mr Hall warns farmers risk being squeezed. “You don’t look after consumer interests by undermining the interests of the primary producer,” he says.

Climate and land pressures

Alongside food security, species management is rising as a growing source of tension between policy and delivery.

NFUS is calling for a more balanced and interventionist approach where protected species are having significant impacts.

It highlights white-tailed eagle predation on lambing flocks, geese damaging crops and grassland, and beavers increasing flood risk on productive land.

As climate policy tightens, NFUS insists emissions targets can be met without reducing livestock numbers.

“It’s about the efficiency of livestock systems, not the numbers themselves,” says Mr Hall.

He points to gains in beef, dairy and lamb efficiency alongside carbon sequestration from soils, peatland, grassland and woodland.

“We’ve got to focus on the how, not the cow,” he adds, describing net zero as “a journey to net zero, not a journey to no emissions”.

This emphasis on efficiency is echoed across the industry.

There remains significant scope to improve output from existing herds through better management of fertility, growth rates and forage use.

“Empty cows, extended calving periods and poor liveweight gain are often accepted, but many of these issues can be reduced through better foresight, nutrition and earlier intervention,” says Euan Hart, trade team leader at supplement specialist Fevara.

He adds that improving grazing performance can increase saleable output without increasing herd size on individual farms.

NFUS argues that reducing domestic production would risk higher imports, carbon leakage and further pressure on fragile rural economies.

Crucial first 100 days

The minority-government setup creates both uncertainty and opportunity. Ministers are expected to rely on issue-by-issue negotiations, giving farming groups early influence.

“There’s got to be compromise to get things done,” says Mr Hall.

NFUS is awaiting the new Programme for Government, expected before the summer recess, while SLE is calling for greater clarity, a stronger growth focus and longer-term planning.

“It is critical that farmers, crofters and the wider rural sector understand what is expected of them and have confidence in how the system will operate,” says Ms Kay.

For Scottish agriculture, the election has delivered stability in headline support and policy direction, but also higher expectations on delivery.

In a minority Parliament facing competing demands, ministers now face scrutiny over whether policy is workable in practice.