Government policy undermining UK food resilience, warns IGD
© Adobe Stock Government policy has failed to strengthen the resilience of the UK’s food system despite mounting threats from climate change, geopolitics and water shortages, according to a major new report.
The Institute of Grocery Distribution’s (IGD) latest resilience report found 100% of industry leaders and academics surveyed believe government policy has not improved food resilience over the past 12 months, while 91% said risks to the UK’s food system have increased.
See also: Defra under pressure to ease drought impacts on food
Kathryn Reynolds, senior manager for resilience at IGD, said: “This year’s report shows that the risks facing the food system are intensifying; building resilience has become a shared priority across all sectors in the food system, and at a fast rate.
“For food businesses, reacting to disruption is no longer enough. Organisations must anticipate change, invest in capability and build supply chains that can withstand shocks, adapt quickly and thrive in a rapidly changing world.”
Risk ranking
The report ranks the greatest risks to UK food system resilience over the next five years, highlighting the pressures most likely to affect food production, farm profitability and national food security.
- Geopolitics – Conflict, trade disruption and volatile energy and fertiliser markets are driving higher costs and increasing uncertainty across global food supply chains.
- Climate change – More frequent droughts, flooding and heatwaves are reducing yields, increasing production costs and amplifying risks across the entire food system.
- Water – Increasingly erratic rainfall and growing regional shortages are making crop production less predictable and highlighting the need for greater water storage and infrastructure.
- Agriculture – Weak profitability, policy change and climate volatility are limiting farmers’ ability to invest, reducing domestic production and threatening food security.
- Economics of the food system – Low profitability throughout the supply chain is undermining investment and long-term resilience.
- Labour and skills – Persistent labour shortages are holding back productivity and the adoption of new technologies.
- Animal disease – The growing threat of disease outbreaks poses increasing risks to livestock production, trade and supply chain resilience.
- Cybersecurity – Increasing digitalisation is leaving food businesses more exposed to cyberattacks and operational disruption.
- Biodiversity loss – Declining ecosystems threaten the natural resources that underpin productive and resilient food systems.
- Opaque supply chains – Limited visibility across increasingly complex supply chains makes it harder to anticipate and respond to disruption.
‘Risk amplifier’
While geopolitical tensions were ranked as the greatest immediate risk because of their impact on energy, fertiliser and commodity markets, IGD says climate change is the defining long-term threat because it acts as a “risk amplifier”, intensifying pressures across agriculture, water, biodiversity and supply chains.
The report says 78% of UK farmers are experiencing more frequent severe weather, with heat and drought costing arable businesses an estimated £800m in 2025 alone.
Climate impacts are expected to increase commodity input costs by 15% and could push UK food prices up by 34% by 2050.
It also warns that declining profitability and climate volatility have contributed to a 5% fall in domestic production per person and a 12% drop in self-sufficiency, with UK home-grown production projected to fall up to 32% by 2050.
National security priority
IGD argues food and nutrition security should be treated as a national security priority and is calling on ministers to adopt a more strategic approach to resilience.
Its recommendations include:
- A dedicated finance plan to support agriculture’s transition to net zero
- Greater investment in food and water infrastructure
- Planning reforms to boost domestic food production
- A national workforce strategy for the food and drink sector
- A Food Inflation Gateway to assess how regulation affects business profitability and food prices.
Government response
Responding to the report, a Defra spokesperson said: “The UK has a highly resilient food system, drawing on both strong domestic production and international trade and we do not expect the recent dry weather to have any impact on national food security.”
The government added it was also working to strengthen the resilience of UK food supply chains against potential disruption through its new Farming Roadmap, alongside collaboration with the National Drought Group and the Farming and Food Partnership Board.