Focus remains on US soyabean crop

THE recent dry weather conditions are believed to have curbed yield potential. However, some analysts estimate that this years US crop, which is going to be harvested in a few weeks, may still reach record levels.

Some forecast the crop at 79.67m tonnes, slightly below the USDAs August estimate of 81.36m tonnes, while other estimates are lower at less than 77m.

The next USDA crop forecast will be released on Tuesday (12 September) and is likely to give some direction to prices. However, much will depend on the demand for soyabeans. China is forecast to buy significant quantities this season, which should help to lower any price pressure.

However, oil markets still very, very bearish
Although the EU rapeseed market has detached itself somewhat from oil markets, one should not forget that rapeseed is mainly crushed for the oil and hence very much under the influence of oil markets.

Rape oil, soya oil and palm oil compete for export markets. With plenty of these oils available, oil price rises are limited. Hence, a major bearish element to the
seed market remains.