Organic boom set to bust?
Organic boom set to bust?
By Andrew Swallow
BOOMING sales of organic produce are unsustainable and UK government growth targets for the sector are unrealistic, according to a Leics-based farm researcher.
But arable growers should at least consider taking advantage of the surge in interest by putting a block of land into conversion, says Alistair Leake, manager of the Focus on Farming Practice project at Stoughton.
"The organic market is growing at 40% a year. But everybody knows growth rates like that are unsustainable in the long term," he told an arable farming conference organised by the Irish advisory service Teagasc last week.
The whole movement is skating on thin ice with public perceptions of what organic produce delivers being far removed from reality, he added. "Organics potential to deliver perceived benefits has been over- stated. All studies have failed to prove it is better for you and whether it tastes better is doubtful. That concerns me.
"But if you are going to persuade consumers to pay twice the price for something you must either convince them it is substantially better or that the alternative will kill them."
Government targets that 30% of UK farming should be organic by 2010 are also unrealistic, he said.
"An awful lot of subsidy will have to be paid if that is going to be achieved, because I do not believe that is going to be achieved by market forces".
Experience in Austria and Denmark supports his argument. "In Austria 10% of farmers went organic in response to substantial subsidies. But that has over supplied their market and 2% have gone back to conventional farming.
"That has to be a lesson to us. Austrians are generally a well-heeled, affluent population and thats all their market could stand."
Denmark is experiencing oversupply problems in organic milk, he adds.
But as only 18% of land in organic conversion in the UK is registered for arable cropping, a shortage of raw materials for organic feeds is probable and prices will remain firm, at least for a few years, he said.
With organic feed wheat worth £180-£220/t growers should at least consider putting a block of their farm into conversion, he suggested.
lFor more on organic cropping turn to our Organic Arable Special on pages 62-67. *
How much longer can the organic boom last? asks Alastair Leake of the Focus on Farming Project.
ORGANIC OPPORTUNITY?
• Growth rates unsustainable.
• Government 30% target unrealistic.
• Oversupply in some sectors likely.
• Med-term arable opportunity.