Unsold stock and new crop push oil prices down

By FWi staff

MARKETS saw a continuation of their downward price movements last week, as pressure from unsold oil stocks and new-crop arrivals remained.

The revised US soyabean crop estimate (-2m tonnes) was as expected, and had little impact on markets.

Soyabean and oil futures fell even further by US$7/t.

Despite this, MATIF rapeseed futures remained on the previous weeks price level, aided by a weaker Euro against the US Dollar.

Currency was also the main price determining factor on UK markets. A stronger Pound against the US Dollar and the Euro pushed values 3-4 lower.

UK rapeseed has lost 5 over the last fortnight.

  • MAFF estimate down by a third

    THE Ministry estimates the 2000 UK rapeseed crop down 33% to 1.17m tonnes, compared to the 1.73m last season. This is a result of a lower sown area (-24%) and lower yields (-11%).

    Commercial rapeseed production is forecast at 0.99m tonnes (-27%), and the industrial rapeseed crop at 0.18m tonnes (-53%).


  • Palm oil affects other markets

    PALM oil values have been sinking for a month, with prices falling as much as $20 within a week.

    This has had an effect on other oil and seed markets, which were also burdened by high stocks (oils) and harvest pressure (seeds).

    With main consumers like India, Pakistan and China partly importing seasonally less material (or awaiting prices to fall further), the pressure on markets has

    An immediate recovery seems therefore out of reach. However, lower oilseed crops globally should have a positive impact later in the season.

    The US soyabean crop is less than expected, as should be the Australian canola crop.

  • No surprises from USDA

    THE monthly US Department of Agriculture supply and demand report released last week showed little surprises.

    The anticipated downward revision of the US soyabean crop from 78.9 to 76.8m tonnes was within expectation, leaving this years crop still at a record.

    Adjustments were also made to the South American soyabean crop, with Brazil forecast to harvest a record crop of 33.5m tonnes, and Argentina estimated to harvest 22.6m tonnes.

    With only marginal changes made to domestic consumption and export estimates, ending stocks remain at comparatively high levels for 2000/01 season.

    • US$1 = 69.16p, 1 = US$1.446 at time of writing.

    Taken from HGCA weekly MI Oilseeds
    To contact the HGCA phone 020 7520 3972

    Click here to visit the Home-Grown Cereals Authority

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