Analysis: Tight Holyrood race raises stakes for Scottish farming
© John F Scott/iStockphoto Scottish farming heads into the 2026 Holyrood election against a backdrop of uncertainty over future funding and agricultural policy, with polling pointing towards a fragmented parliament.
Latest surveys show the SNP as the largest party and the leading contender to remain in government, but with no settled picture on a majority, as different models place it either side of the 65 seats needed to control the 129‑seat Parliament.
Scottish Labour and the Conservatives trail in most projections, with Labour seats typically in the mid-to-high teens and the Conservatives in the low teens or single figures.
See also: NFUS launches manifesto as ‘fragmented’ election looms
The Liberal Democrats and Greens are forecast to hold or slightly increase their representation, while Reform UK features strongly in many models, with projections ranging from the mid-teens to the low 20s.
A fragmented parliament would need to rely more on negotiation and cross-party deals than a single-party mandate, which could heavily influence how agricultural policy is shaped in the next term.
Future of farm support
Farm support is a key dividing line between parties, with clear differences over how it should be structured and what it should achieve.
The SNP has pledged to maintain direct payments as the backbone of the system and committed more than £660m a year for food production, including £100m for less favoured areas (LFAs) and voluntary coupled support payments for livestock, alongside existing animal health funding.
An SNP spokesman said there would be no “big bang moments or financial cliff edges” for farm support payments, but a focus on continuity to give farm businesses confidence to invest.
The Scottish Conservatives argue the sector has been underfunded and are calling for a £50m uplift to the rural affairs budget, alongside multi-annual settlements to improve long-term certainty.
Tim Eagle, Scottish Conservative rural affairs spokesman, Moray candidate and sheep farmer, said: “We would instantly give the rural affairs budget a £50m uplift and provide multi annual budgets to give farmers the long-term security they are asking for.”
Scottish Labour has proposed capping Tier 1 (direct) payments to the largest businesses and redistributing more support towards smaller producers.
Donald MacKinnon, a crofter and Scottish Labour candidate for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Western Isles), said: “We will deliver a modern agricultural system that supports food production and rural communities, with the certainty of multi-year funding.”
The Scottish Liberal Democrats are proposing to ring-fence farm support payments and move to three-year funding deals “to give farmers the confidence and certainty they need”.
Reform UK would overhaul farm payments and LFA funding to focus support on active farmers, alongside grants for farmed land improvements, drainage, fencing and hedgerows, and incentives for young farmers.
The Scottish Greens are proposing the most fundamental redesign, replacing much of the current area-based system with a Transition Insurance Fund to reward farmers and crofters who produce food in nature-friendly and regenerative ways.
Scottish Green candidate Ariane Burgess, who represents the Highlands and Islands and is standing for re-election, said: “Our Transition Insurance Fund replaces an unfair subsidy system that hands most of the money to large landowners, not working farmers.”
Food production
Food production is a shared priority across all parties, but they differ on how it should be supported and measured, balancing productivity, resilience and environmental goals.
The SNP has pledged to establish a public sector food procurement task force to review barriers and strengthen local sourcing.
The Scottish Conservatives are prioritising productivity and innovation, including protecting farmland for food production, reviewing labelling rules and backing gene editing to cut costs and improve efficiency.
However, the party opposes SNP proposals for retail price caps on food staples, such as bread, milk and eggs, warning these would reduce farmgate returns.
Labour has prioritised investment in local abattoirs and processing capacity, arguing infrastructure is key to strengthening domestic supply chains and improving farmgate returns.
The Liberal Democrats are focusing on fairer supply chains and improved market access, including procurement reform to support sustainable Scottish produce and closer UK-EU alignment to ease trade friction.
The Scottish Greens are proposing mandatory local procurement targets, prioritising local, Scottish produce, devolved supermarket regulation and investment in food hubs and co-operative supply chains.
Reform UK is calling for tighter import controls, the removal of farm carbon reporting requirements, and stronger protection of productive farmland from rewilding and energy projects, which it says undermine food production.
Livestock numbers
Livestock production and land use in relation to climate targets are among the most debated farming issues of the campaign.
The SNP, Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Liberal Democrats and Reform UK all oppose enforced reductions in livestock numbers, a position likely to resonate with cattle and sheep farmers.
Labour said it would support the industry to maintain a “critical mass” of livestock to sustain the agricultural supply chain, while also backing land use change where it aligns with climate goals.
The Scottish Greens also do not propose mandatory reductions in livestock numbers, but would incentivise land management that locks carbon into soils, restores peatlands and supports native woodland.
Overall, the debate is increasingly about the pace and direction of land use change rather than actual cuts in livestock numbers.
Rural frustration
A December 2025 NFU Scotland survey of 3,000 rural residents found that 73% believe politicians do not understand countryside needs.
While the SNP remains strong, opposition parties see opportunities in rural areas where farmers are frustrated by policy delays, regulatory complexity and uncertainty over long-term funding.
For many Scottish farming and crofting businesses, the key question is no longer just the level of support available, but whether the next government will provide the clarity and stability needed for long-term investment.
What NFU Scotland wants from the next Scottish government
The next Scottish Parliament will shape the future of farming and crofting at a key moment, writes NFU Scotland president Andrew Connon.
For NFU Scotland, the priority is clear: delivering a profitable, sustainable and resilient agricultural sector that underpins food production, rural communities and climate ambitions.
First and foremost, certainty is essential. An increased, multi-annual, ring-fenced agricultural budget would give farmers and crofters the confidence to invest, plan and deliver. Without it, productive capacity, environmental progress and rural jobs are all at risk.
Future support must remain focused on active farming and crofting. Direct payments are a foundation of stability during transition and must be targeted at those producing food and managing land. A fair, phased transition to new support schemes, co-designed with industry, is critical.
Food security must also move up the political agenda. Recent supply chain shocks have exposed the fragility of reliance on imports.
Scotland must set clear production targets, strengthen local processing, and ensure fairness and transparency across the supply chain so producers receive a fair return.
On climate and land use, farmers and crofters are part of the solution, but policies must remain balanced – protecting productive land, supporting low-carbon innovation, and recognising the vital role of livestock systems in Scotland.
This election is a real opportunity to back Scottish agriculture with practical, joined-up policy and secure the foundations of the rural economy for the future. NFU Scotland stands ready to work in partnership with the next government to deliver for Scotland.
Polling – Prof Ailsa Henderson, Edinburgh University
With a week to go until the election we have seen a slight narrowing in the polls to the extent we can be certain the SNP will emerge as the largest party.
What is less clear is whether this will allow the SNP to govern as a minority or majority, or whether a pro-union block will emerge as the largest grouping. Any minority government should be more responsive to farming organisations like NFU Scotland.
The election takes place against decreased approval for the SNP government and a growing perception that Scotland is going in the wrong direction, suggesting uncertainty over the country’s political and economic future.
In polling there is little sense that farming is the most salient issue, largely because pollsters do not include it as a separate category. In 2021, few mentioned farming as the most important issue.
Attitudes to farming are closely tied to cost of living and the economy, both perennially cited issues. All parties have sought to reassure the sector on stable and predictable funding.
Farming matters nationally, but its economic role is concentrated in specific constituencies.
There are nine where the proportion of workers in agriculture, forestry and fishing exceeds 5% – including Argyll and Bute, Banffshire and Buchan Coast, Caithness, Sutherland and Ross, Ettrick Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Galloway and West Dumfries, Shetland, Orkney and Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
These seats are held by a mix of Conservative, Lib Dem and SNP MSPs, and candidates should expect greater scrutiny of their farming policies.